As the film industry rapidly changes with new studio platforms available for filmmakers and in product delivery, those slam-dunk predictions that we make in our sleep may be a bit more challenging this year.
With another fine year for film in the can – as strong as 2016 and 2015 – it’s time to go on record with my #2018OscarPredictions.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) has been working hard to diversify its membership – as they should. In 2014, the overall breakdown looked like this:
94% white
76% men
63 years old, on average
These sad statistics are hardly representative of the US or the world of today, and the #OscarsSoWhite hashtag was deservedly given. The better news is that by mid-2017, over 700 new members were invited to join AMPAS across all branches.
From 2015 through 2017, invitations extended to:
Women: Increased to nearly 360%
People of color: Increased more than 330%
The current list is more diverse by gender, race and age, and that can only result in good news for the film industry and for #filmfans. Review the full record here, and note that not all those invited accept their memberships.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and A Ghost Story were my top favorites, the former with seven nominations, while The Shape of Water ran off with 13 noms. The complete film breakdown by nominations is here. I still have quite a few films to see before the Oscars, especially in the documentary and foreign categories.
Those #OscarSnubsandSurprises
> Snubs: Martin McDonagh overlooked for his direction of Three Billboards. The Best Director category should correspond to the best nominated films. How would the films get the nods without the director? The Florida Project should have been in the best picture mix. Lastly, Andy Serkis – can’t the Academy make a special award for motion capture work, especially since he has been a pioneer in the field, and transformed the technique into an art form?
> Surprises: Best actress/actor nods to Meryl Streep – really – The Post felt flat and was more an ensemble piece than breakout roles; and Denzel Washington – in one of his least interesting performances? Those slots could have better filled, perhaps with Cynthia Nixon in A Quiet Passion or Will Poulter in Detroit. The pleasant surprise for the best supporting actress category: Lesley Manville in Phantom Thread.
> Best Picture: I’m calling it for The Shape of Water. The film has earned the Guilds’ top honors – Directors and Producers. Three Billboards has polarized voters, so while I’m rooting for it, It’s not taking home Oscar. Dunkirk and Get Out are the other contenders of the nine nominated films.
> Best Director: DGA winner Guillermo del Toro owns this, as have most DGA winners. His artistry will be rewarded. Christopher Nolan may pull off an upset for his body of work, but I don't think so. Greta Gerwig’s time will come later, the Academy is not ready for her yet. And Jordan Peele may grab Oscar for Best Original Screenplay.
> Best Actor: Gary Oldman, virtually unrecognizable as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, turned in a brilliant performance and drove the entire film. He’s won a host of awards already. It’s his time, after an impressive body of diverse work – the statue is his to lose. Timothée Chalamet is Oldman’s closest competition, followed by Daniel Day-Lewis.
> Best Actress: While Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is divisive, Frances McDormand’s commanding mad-as-hell mother looks to be another sure win of the night. Saoirse Ronan may get the call to represent for Lady Bird, but she’s young and has plenty of great films ahead of her. My upset call is for Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water who consistently delivers intelligent and diverse performances – this one with no words – within a prolific body of work.
> Best Supporting Actor: This may be one of more up-for-grabs categories of the evening even though Sam Rockwell has won most of the awards to date. Rockwell’s bread and butter has been in indies, and he doesn’t appear to be a Hollywood player. It’s possible that Willem Dafoe could sneak in and grab the Oscar for The Florida Project, and that would be ok too.
> Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney is a runaway here in I, Tonya. She’s taken home all of the major awards in her category and the #AcademyAward will be hers too. If she wins, she’ll be just a “G” away from an EGOT. Laurie Metcalf, as the mother of Lady Bird, is Janney’s only real competition.
> Best Foreign Language Film: Calling it for The Square, although voters don’t usually go for comedy in this category (last year's Toni Erdmann missed out). But A Fantastic Woman is a front-runner as well. I’m curious to see Loveless and The Insult which also sound strong.
> Best Documentary: No idea really. City of Ghosts and Jane weren’t nominated, and they were the only worthy foreign films that I’ve seen thus far. I’m thinking Faces Places, because how can you go wrong with 89-year-old Agnès Varda? Icarus may beat her though – it's from Russia, and that's timely.
I’d love to miss in a few categories – surprises and upsets are usually among the show’s highlights. We’ll see how Jimmy Kimmel performs in his sophomore outing amidst the #MeToo movement and all of the harassment bombshells.
Play along sunday | 4 march 2018. Cast your ballot online at The New York Times, or download a paper copy here.
How do you see the #AcademyAwards playing out?
Top illustration: © 2018 Janet Giampietro. Photos copyright of their respective studios. Oscars® is a a registered trademark of AMPAS.
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