Calling the #2019Oscars is a like flipping a coin – could go one of two ways in most categories given the many changes in the Academy. It’s hard to pin them down, so sit back and enjoy the glitz.
This year may be the most fun for predicting the Oscar winners. Between the more representative voters – more diverse, younger members – and the broad definition of what are “outstanding artistic and scientific achievements in theatrically released feature-length motion pictures,” the winners could all be surprises. Let’s hope!
The Academy body is not the only sea change. The #film industry is rapidly consolidating. Big cinema chains are eating up mid-sizes ones, along with art houses. Streaming services continue to expand and branch into their own independent studios with tons of original, quality content.
It’s been another great year of films – perhaps stronger than the previous year. I believe we can officially call this year a Golden Age. But challenges within the industry still remain.
Film News in Brief
A recent study revealed that female leads in films from 2014-2017 outperformed films with male leads. Women-led stories pulled in more revenue in global box office tallies. Of those films though, the leads represented little diversity. In 2016-17, the number of films with female protagonists decreased, even though revenue remained high. There’s much work to be done.
Black Panther employed African-American talent in front of, and behind the camera, provided rich #filmmaking and #storytelling, cultural representation, and delivered huge grosses. Given that, it’s been rewarded with a best picture nod. Let’s hope this film paves the way for more films celebrating diverse cultures both above and below the line.
The less great news is that Disney’s acquisition of 21st Century Fox has further narrowed competition and innovation. With Hulu included in the deal, Disney has doubled its ownership stake and is likely looking ahead to streaming and direct-to-consumer content. How big is too big? Good for consumer access, but at what price, and at what loss in creativity.
> Snubs: Ethan Hawke, giving one of his finest performances in First Reformed – which also failed to nab a best film or director nom. Debra Granik overlooked for her direction of Leave No Trace – the film itself was snubbed for best picture along with its lead actor, Ben Forster. No female director was recognized this year: Marielle Heller for the nominated Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Chloe Zhao for The Rider, Lynne Ramsay for You Were Never Really Here, all terrific films. Disappointed to see neither Won’t You Be My Neighbor? nor Three Identical Strangers nominated in the documentary category.
> Surprises: Happy to see Spike Lee finally nominated for director for BlackkKlansman – his strongest work in years. And to Pawel Pawlikowski for the gorgeous and romantic Cold War.
My logic could be totally wrong, but here we go.
> Best Picture: While rooting for The Favourite – it may be too eccentric – I’m calling it for Green Book. Here’s why. The film has taken some top awards, and has gathered steam, despite opinions that the story has been misrepresented. I’m eliminating A Star Is Born which has lost steam, and Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody for mixed reviews and production turmoil. Roma will win Best Foreign Language Film – I don’t see a foreign-language film winning best picture yet, or a Netflix release. Black Panther – the nom was its reward. That leaves BlacKkKlansman, which may pull out a win.
> Best Director: This is a tough one. It’s hard to imagine the best director and best film not being synced as winners, but splits happen more often than not. Alfonso Cuarón took home the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award for Roma, so it’s possible that he and Roma will take home the two top awards. Given my reasoning for the best picture winner, many unknowns apply. Voters may award Cuarón with Best Foreign Language Film and Cinematography and make way for Spike Lee, who won the Cannes Grand Prix award, to get an historic win as the first black filmmaker as Best Director for BlacKkKlansman. Especially given that Cuarón won previously for Gravity. I'm going out on a limb – giving Oscar to Spike. If Lee fails to win here, he may win for Best Adapted Screenplay.
> Best Actor: This is a two-horse race between Rami Malek and Christian Bale. Oscar was Bale’s to lose, but wins for Malek in recent weeks may have turned the tide. Bale disappeared into Cheney, and Malek inhabited the soul of Mercury. Coin toss goes to Rami. I’d like to see Willem Dafoe get the Oscar love.
> Best Actress: I’d be surprised if Glenn Close, a never-winner, doesn’t take Oscar home for The Wife, especially with new attention since her winning Golden Globes’ acceptance speech. Olivia Colman, the long-running favorite (and mine), was honored with other awards, but has since cooled. I’m happy to see Melissa McCarthy recognized in a dramatic role.
> Best Supporting Actor: As Green Book (surprisingly to me) managed to grab a ton of nominations this season, odds are Mahershala Ali will win his second gong. Adam Driver, who, as always, turned in a strong performance in BlacKkKlansman, may be his closest competitor in a fairly strong group.
> Best Supporting Actress: This is a lock for Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk, in a year of five excellent supporting performances. Amy Adams' performance in Vice, her sixth nomination, has the tiniest chance. But I don’t think so.
> Best Foreign Language Film: Roma for the win.
> Best Documentary: I haven’t seen the other three documentaries yet, but having seen Free Solo and RBG, and judging by the buzz, this is another two-horse race. I’m going with the very vertical Free Solo, but considering Ruth Bader Ginsberg is one hip judge, and has just returned to the bench after her cancer surgery, RBG could score the trophy.
I’m sure that I’ll miss in many categories – I’m looking for surprises – that’s part of the fun. And with no host, and maybe no banter between the presenters, the show may be shorter.
Play along sunday | 24 february 2019 at 8pm ET on ABC. Cast your ballot online at The New York Times, or download a paper copy here.
Why are two top categories named so differently? Best Picture vs Best Foreign Language Film? Is the Academy implying that US films are not artistic? Just sayin’.
What are your predictions for the 2019 #AcademyAwards?
Top photo illustration: © 2019 Janet Giampietro. Photos copyright of their respective studios. Oscars® is a registered trademark of AMPAS.
