While there are still rough times ahead for the movie industry, Hollywood loves a comeback, especially its own. Will anyone but the industry crowd care?
With a two-month delay due to the pandemic, the 2021 Academy Awards are going forward with a streamlined in-person show. Only presenters, nominees and their guest will be in attendance. If a nominee doesn’t attend, they’ll be no Zooming in from afar.
Hollywood boasts a bang-up show nonetheless. At this writing, the ceremony will be hostless as in the previous few years. The industry needs the ratings badly due to closed theaters for more than a year and stalled productions, resulting in staggering losses. But streaming platforms are not going away. The question is – after this awful year – will the magic return to theaters?
Oscars 2020 got in under the wire – in the ‘before’ times. Before the trauma of the Covid. Perhaps the academy voters were numb, lazy, or simply tuned out and didn’t want to watch hundreds of screeners. Whatever the reason, a large number of the films nominated this year lean on the grim or the flat side. Contrary to Bill Maher’s bit, ‘The Debbies’, I don’t have a problem with downbeat films – but I do have a problem with subpar nominations. Small-scale, character-centric pieces are great, but they need to deliver on the whole package. Many of this year’s nominees do not.
Though I saw a smaller number of new films than previous years, and granted some releases were pushed forward because of Covid, my my unofficial best-of list had more bite. There were many excellent, original, and challenging films available in 2020. What a great opportunity to recognize new and different work. Where’s First Cow? From my list, only Nomadland and Time received nominations.
Oscar Snubs and Surprises
Snubs
First Cow and director/co-writer Kelly Reichardt; Julia Garner, The Assistant; Willem Dafoe, Tommaso; and Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Neither Boys State nor Dick Johnson is Dead received best documentary recognition. If the best picture nominees exceed five, why can’t the documentary and international films categories do the same?
No award attention paid to Never Rarely Sometimes Always, a great film about an unintended pregnancy with two young actresses knocking it out of the park.
Surprises
Steven Yeun of Minari becoming the first Asian-American nominee in the best actor field
LaKeith Stanfield has been doing impressive work for years (watch Sorry To Bother You, for one), and I’m happy to see him recognized with a best supporting actor nod.
Promising Young Woman with five noms – really? It didn’t even satisfy as revenge porn.
My 2021 Oscar Predictions
We can probably all agree that it was a weird year. Some films were held back in favor of theatrical release, and those that were streamed may not have been seen by many. Let’s work with what we have.
> Best Picture: Of the eight nominated films, my pick is Nomadland. I don’t understand the praise for Promising Young Woman – it’s an interesting indie at most. Mank is a gorgeous, well-crafted film with a terrific performance from Gary Oldman, but the story is slightly muddled. Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a cherry-picked, Sorkin-esque historical film. Watch it for the cast and the acting. Minari (I’m looking forward to seeing this) may be the upset. I don’t see Judas and The Black Messiah, The Father or Sound of Metal as probables.
> Best Director: Chloé Zhao for Nomadland is a sure thing. It’s her time. Her films have been building in complexity and scale, and she won the DGA award. Not sure how Emerald Fennell of Promising Young Woman scored a spot here. She’s a first-time feature director – an Oscar win is unlikely. Unclear on how Thomas Vinterberg landed here either. Another Round is an intriguing premise with a good cast led by Mads Mikkelsen, but it doesn’t go anywhere.
> Best Actor: Will the Academy award a posthumous honor on Chadwick Boseman? Yes it will. Mr. Boseman for the win. I’ve watched Boseman from his early work and he did quality work consistently. I have issues with Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom though. It feels ambiguous – is it a film or a film of a play? I heard it, but I didn’t feel it. The two lead performances are huge (directed that way, I assume), feeling calibrated for the stage and out of sync with the rest of the film, but I seem to be in the minority on this opinion. Unlikely, but Riz Ahmed’s performance as a drummer who loses his hearing in Sound of Metal may be Boseman’s closest challenge.
> Best Actress: Tough race to call this year. It’s a three-horser: Francis McDormand (who last won in 2018), Viola Davis (see ‘Ma’ above, and she won a best-supporting actress award for Fences in 2017), and Carey Mulligan. Mulligan gives a fearless performance in a meh film. Her body of work and a younger voting academy may tip in her favor. In Pieces of a Woman, Vanessa Kirby delivers (no pun intended) an agonizing performance in another meh film that never matches the intensity and truth of the opening scene. Andra Day, too new on the film scene, stars in a film that doesn’t deserve her contribution as Billie Holiday. Since Ma was overlooked for a best picture nod, I’m going with its lead for the win…Viola Davis.
> Best Supporting Actor: This is an interesting category too. While I haven’t seen Judas and The Black Messiah yet, I’m going with Daniel Kaluuya as Fred Hampton. He was previously nommed for Get Out and has won all of the other major awards. Paul Raci in Sound of Metal may be the surprise winner here, if Kaluuya and Stanfield cancel each other out. Raci’s parents were deaf so he signs, and his story is similar to that of his character, Joe. Leslie Odom, Jr. has a better shot at the Oscar for best song.
> Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung has gathered most of the major awards to date. I’d be surprised if she didn’t win, and hers could be the only win for Minari. Glenn Close is long overdue with eight noms/no wins, having lost in 2019 to fellow nominee Olivia Colman (The Father), and may be the sentimental favorite. Maria Bakalova’s funny turn in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm is also in the mix, but awarding a comedic performance has rarely been the Academy’s pattern. Mank’s Amanda Seyfried, in a small and unremarkable role as I saw it, has been working the promo circuit hard. My pick: Minari’s Youn Yuh-jung.
> Best International Feature: Looks like Oscar’s going to Another Round. I’ve only seen that film and Collective, which is also nominated in the best documentary category. I prefer the latter, though the Romanian film is a tough watch for these times as bribery and corruption infect its health care and political systems.
> Best Documentary Feature: All of this year’s nominees are super strong and worth a watch. I’m calling it for My Octopus Teacher for the win. It’s beautiful, heartwarming, heartbreaking and quite an amazing story: Filmmaker Craig Foster observes the lifecycle of an octopus and bonds with it. Crip Camp: A Disability Resolution (the Obamas are executive producers) is a remarkable doc and may take home the gong. An incredibly inspiring and informative film – I learned so much about the history of the ADA. After the year we’ve had, Octopus may still hold the advantage over the also excellent, but grittier, Time – a look at the failings of the prison system from a personal perspective. Collective noted above. The Mole Agent is the long shot.
Lastly, while Soul will surely win the best animated feature – technically stunning as Pixar films always are, and with great music – its story falls short. Wolfwakers is the one to savor. It is enchanting and gorgeous with its hand-drawn animation.
I’m always looking for surprises – I'd trade losing the Oscar pool if unexpected choices are honored.
My ballot – done. Play along sunday | 25 april 2021 at 8pm ET on ABC. Cast your ballot online at The New York Times, or download and print the 2021 Oscars Ballot here.
What are your predictions? Will you watch the 2021 Academy Awards?
Top photo illustration: © 2021Janet Giampietro. Photos copyright of their respective studios. Oscars® is a registered trademark of AMPAS.
