No surprises expected. That's the feeling for #Oscars2020, Watch the hostless #AcademyAwards to likely see the same titles and actors sweeping their categories. Where's the originality?
Calling the 2020 Oscars seems more like a logic problem than a great artistic endeavor. When isolating who or what won’t win, the answers becomes evident quickly – in a year with a lot of white, male-focused films.
I must admit, I haven’t seen all of the nominated films this year. It’s the first time in more than a decade. But, seeing the films has nothing to do with predicting the winners. If you follow the industry at all, or read a few articles, you can make a good go at winning the office Oscars pool. And in the end, the Oscars celebrate money – follow it.
From my best-of-2019 films list, only one of my top 10 films, and one of my honorable mentions made the Oscar nominations, so I don’t have a lot of skin in the game this year. I’ve discussed the changing landscape of film in that post, and I believe that streaming services will figure more significantly into voting decisions (think Netflix’s The Irishman) than it did last year when Netflix’s Roma was nominated in several categories.
Two points worth watching this year: 1) how will the more representative voting body – more diverse and younger members – cast their ballots for nominated films that are representative of predominantly white men; and 2) how will the hostless Oscar proceedings fare for the second year. Has that novelty worn off?
Snubs
Women – specifically Greta Gerwig, Lulu Wang, and Nanfu Wang – no recognition in the Best Directing category.
Willem Dafoe was spectacular in The Lighthouse. The film's only nomination is for cinematography. Also, I’m not particularly a fan of Adam Sandler, but he turns in a great performance in Uncut Gems from the Safdie Brothers.
Neither Apollo 11 nor One Child Nation were nominated in the documentary category. They were my favorite docs, both terrific, and I hope they find larger audiences.
Surprises
Happy to see Taika Watiti’s JoJo Rabbit nominated in several categories.
Thrilled to see Jonathan Pryce finally get recognized for The Two Popes, or more likely for a lifetime of great work.
Many slam dunks this year as I see it, but off we go.
> Best Picture: Of the nominated films, my favorites are Parasite and JoJo Rabbit. Parasite will likely take Best International Feature – I’m not sure that the Academy is ready to award a foreign film with its biggest award, although it's the best film of the year. JoJo Rabbit, Little Women and Ford v Ferrari don’t stand a chance. Joker is too dystopian and controversial. Marriage Story didn’t resonate as much as was thought, and The Irishman feels like an overdone topic. I’m torn between calling it for 1917 or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. The former is that grand WWI epic that old Hollywood loves so much, while the latter is an ode to Hollywood itself. 1917 has already scored top awards. The film is being lauded for its technical achievement in advancing the story, particularly from the Producers Guild of America (PGA), and is the more traditional choice. I’m calling it for 1917.
> Best Director: As I say every year, it’s hard to imagine the best director and best film not winning in sync, but splits still happen. This year, Sam Mendes’ 1917 won big at the BAFTAs, scooping up seven, and won top honors from the Directors Guild of America (DGA). Tarantino has never taken home Oscar for best director or best picture, and I don’t see that changing this year, unless this is the one upset category of the night. Look for Tarantino to win for Original Screenplay (unless Bong Joon Ho’s script for Parasite nabs it.) It could happen, but I’m going with Sam Mendes with his long-take approach.
> Best Actor: I’d be really surprised if Joaquin Phoenix doesn’t take Oscar home for Joker. More for his body of work than for this one performance in a divisive film. All of the nominated performances this year were superb. Tough category, Adam Driver could be the surprise upset.
> Best Actress: The award seems destined to go to Renée Zellweger for Judy. Hollywood still loves Judy Garland. Scarlett Johansson is her closest competition.
> Best Supporting Actor: Hello Brad Pitt. I can’t imagine Oscar going to anyone else. Hollywood also loves a great comeback story.
> Best Supporting Actress: As Laura Dern has won this category across the board, I’m thinking she will take home the gong as Marriage Story's only recognition of the night. Dern is always great, but this performance wasn't as revelatory to me. Scarlett Johansson turned in a fine performance in JoJo Rabbit, and I’ll be rooting for her.
> Best International Feature: Parasite seems unbeatable. Such a masterful film.
> Best Documentary Feature: The Obamas loom large over this category as their production company executive-produced the nominated film, American Factory. I haven’t seen this doc yet, but based upon its reviews and pedigree, it leaves with Oscar. For Sama and Honeyland were extraordinary stories, so this is a tough call. Congrats to those who shortlisted this category – four of the five nominated #documentaries were directed or co-directed by women!
I’m always looking for surprises – so losing the Oscar pool will be fine provided unexpected choices are awarded. And let’s hope with no host again in year two, the show will be even shorter.
My ballot is cast. Play along sunday | 9 february 2020 at 8pm ET on ABC. Cast your ballot online at The New York Times, or download and print the Rotten Tomatoes ballot here.
What are your predictions for the #2020AcademyAwards? How did you see the year in film?
Top photo illustration: © 2020 Janet Giampietro. Photos copyright of their respective studios. Oscars® is a registered trademark of AMPAS.
